Trader consensus clusters tightly around 32–34°C for Beijing’s August 21 high, reflecting uncertainty in the timing and coverage of afternoon thunderstorms expected under a weakening subtropical high and lingering East Asian monsoon moisture. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread, with some runs favoring greater convective suppression and clearer skies that could allow readings near 34°C, while others incorporate earlier cloud build-up that limits insolation and caps peaks closer to 32°C. Typical late-August climatology features a gradual seasonal decline from July peaks, with humidity-driven instability adding day-to-day variability; upcoming model updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will likely narrow the range before resolution.