Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos terramotos de 6,5 ou mais de 3 de agosto a 9 de agosto?
Quantos terramotos de 6,5 ou mais de 3 de agosto a 9 de agosto?
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
NOVO
NOVO
10 ago 2026
0
47%
1
31%
2
18%
3
4%
4
2%
5
1%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
NOVO
NOVO
10 ago 2026
0
$1,157 Vol.
47%
1
$205 Vol.
31%
2
$92 Vol.
18%
3
$77 Vol.
4%
4
$126 Vol.
2%
5
$134 Vol.
1%
>5
$91 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,882Data de Término
10 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,882Data de Término
10 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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