**Traders assign a low probability to Imran Khan’s release by December 31, 2026, reflecting multiple active convictions, pending appeals, and institutional resistance to unconditional freedom.** Khan has remained in Adiala Jail since August 2023, serving a 14-year sentence in the Al-Qadir Trust corruption case and a 17-year term in the Toshakhana-II state-gifts matter, alongside dozens of other proceedings. Appeals in the core cases have advanced slowly through the Islamabad High Court and higher benches, with additional charges historically filed when earlier convictions were suspended or overturned. Recent Supreme Court orders addressed medical access and family visits amid reports of vision loss and other health complaints, yet authorities returned him to prison after a brief public-hospital evaluation and have contested broader relief. The government maintains that treatment can occur within the jail system, while PTI and family statements emphasize ongoing restrictions and call for broader legal or humanitarian measures. Speculation around medical release or political accommodation has surfaced periodically but lacks confirmed momentum, as Khan has rejected conditions tied to his political role and the establishment shows little inclination to facilitate an early exit. With only a few months remaining and no scheduled events or rulings that would automatically clear the primary sentences, the current trader consensus aligns with the structural and procedural barriers evident in ongoing litigation and institutional positions.