Recent model consensus from European and global ensembles points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow as the main driver keeping Warsaw's minimum temperature for August 22 clustered near 12–14 °C. Cooler maritime air advection behind a weakening front is limiting daytime heat retention while variable low-level wind speeds and dew-point depressions create a narrow but uncertain range for the nocturnal minimum; stronger mixing or lingering cloud cover could cap the low near 14 °C, whereas clearer breaks would favor 12–13 °C. Historical August climatology places typical minima around 15 °C, underscoring how this cooler airmass departure has tightened probabilities around the current leading outcomes. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles expected overnight will likely refine the final distribution before resolution.