**Forecast consensus points to an overnight low in the upper 60s to low 70s°F for Los Angeles on August 22, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 64–75°F bins.** Official National Weather Service guidance and multiple models indicate areas of low clouds and fog in the morning with clear skies developing, producing a minimum near 68–71°F. This aligns with recent nights, where lows have held in the 67–70°F range amid a stable high-pressure pattern. The marine layer—typical for coastal Southern California in summer—plays the key differentiating role. Its depth, timing of clearing, and interaction with light winds determine how much radiational cooling occurs before sunrise; a thicker or more persistent layer tends to keep temperatures in the higher end of the range (70–73°F), while earlier clearing or stronger offshore flow allows slightly lower readings (64–67°F). Current model runs show limited spread, with most guidance converging near 70°F, which explains why the 68–69°F, 70–71°F, and 72–73°F bins each carry roughly 27–28.5% implied probability. Historical context reinforces the current setup: August overnight lows average around 65°F, but recent years have trended warmer under similar synoptic conditions. With resolution occurring within hours and no incoming weather systems expected to disrupt the pattern, traders are pricing in modest uncertainty around the exact minimum rather than a wide range of outcomes. Updated forecast discussions or hourly observations on August 22 could still shift the final bin by a degree or two.