The San Antonio Spurs hold a dominant 90% implied probability to win the opening tip in Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals against the New York Knicks due to Victor Wembanyama’s unmatched combination of 7-foot-4 height, elite leaping ability, and timing as the primary jumper. Wembanyama has consistently controlled tip-offs throughout the postseason with his superior reach and athleticism against opposing centers, creating a significant matchup edge that traders have priced in heavily. Recent form shows the Spurs relying on this advantage to set the tone early, while the Knicks’ frontcourt options lack comparable size or explosiveness for the jump ball. Historical patterns in high-stakes games reinforce how such physical mismatches reliably shift probabilities toward the favored team’s big man.