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Política·Eleições Francesas

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Política·Eleições Francesas

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

NOVO
30 abr 2027
Polymarket

$2,952 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$209 Vol.

9%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$226 Vol.

80%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$60 Vol.

5%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$1 Vol.

45%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$9 Vol.

5%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$164 Vol.

4%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$50 Vol.

4%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$126 Vol.

4%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$0 Vol.

23%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$200 Vol.

8%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$21 Vol.

6%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$25 Vol.

21%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$314 Vol.

43%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$10 Vol.

6%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$50 Vol.

6%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$50 Vol.

6%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$54 Vol.

7%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$74 Vol.

4%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$208 Vol.

4%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$73 Vol.

4%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$0 Vol.

3%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$57 Vol.

3%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$57 Vol.

3%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$12 Vol.

3%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$50 Vol.

4%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$85 Vol.

3%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$152 Vol.

26%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$50 Vol.

7%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$71 Vol.

4%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$56 Vol.

6%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$50 Vol.

5%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$50 Vol.

3%

icon for Other

Other

$92 Vol.

35%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$38 Vol.

4%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$121 Vol.

3%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$81 Vol.

4%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$6 Vol.

4%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leads recent first-round polling for the April 2027 presidential election and is widely viewed as the frontrunner to reach the runoff, benefiting from party consolidation after Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and pending July 2026 appeal on her eligibility ban. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has shown gains on the left, while center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal register stronger runoff potential against Bardella. A crowded field of declared and potential candidates from multiple parties, combined with France’s fragmented parliament since the 2024 snap legislative elections, increases uncertainty over which challenger will join Bardella in the second round. The two-week runoff format and historical “republican front” dynamics remain key variables.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$2,952
Data de Término
30 abr 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leads recent first-round polling for the April 2027 presidential election and is widely viewed as the frontrunner to reach the runoff, benefiting from party consolidation after Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction and pending July 2026 appeal on her eligibility ban. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has shown gains on the left, while center-right figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal register stronger runoff potential against Bardella. A crowded field of declared and potential candidates from multiple parties, combined with France’s fragmented parliament since the 2024 snap legislative elections, increases uncertainty over which challenger will join Bardella in the second round. The two-week runoff format and historical “republican front” dynamics remain key variables.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$2,952
Data de Término
30 abr 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 37 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 80%, followed by "Édouard Philippe" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?," browse the 37 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is "Jordan Bardella" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.