The conviction of Marine Le Pen for misuse of European Parliament funds and the July 2027 appeal ruling on her five-year public office ban remain the dominant factors shaping trader positioning in this market. Jordan Bardella, as National Rally president and the party's most prominent figure in recent polling, has consolidated support as the probable standard-bearer if the ban holds, reflecting his strong first-round voting intentions and party infrastructure advantages. Recent municipal election gains and joint outreach to business leaders by both figures have reinforced the party's overall momentum ahead of the 2027 contest, while Le Pen's continued public role sustains residual market share tied to a favorable appeal outcome. The closely divided probabilities underscore uncertainty over the final candidate selection process and any late shifts in internal party dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleição presidencial francesa de 2027: candidata à manifestação nacional
Eleição presidencial francesa de 2027: candidata à manifestação nacional
Jordan Bardella 74%
Marine Le Pen 27%
Multiple Candidates 4.2%
NOVO
NOVO
23 abr 2027
Marine Le Pen
27%
Jordan Bardella
74%
Multiple Candidates
4%
Jordan Bardella 74%
Marine Le Pen 27%
Multiple Candidates 4.2%
NOVO
NOVO
23 abr 2027
Marine Le Pen
$1,001 Vol.
27%
Jordan Bardella
$2,084 Vol.
74%
Multiple Candidates
$554 Vol.
4%
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The conviction of Marine Le Pen for misuse of European Parliament funds and the July 2027 appeal ruling on her five-year public office ban remain the dominant factors shaping trader positioning in this market. Jordan Bardella, as National Rally president and the party's most prominent figure in recent polling, has consolidated support as the probable standard-bearer if the ban holds, reflecting his strong first-round voting intentions and party infrastructure advantages. Recent municipal election gains and joint outreach to business leaders by both figures have reinforced the party's overall momentum ahead of the 2027 contest, while Le Pen's continued public role sustains residual market share tied to a favorable appeal outcome. The closely divided probabilities underscore uncertainty over the final candidate selection process and any late shifts in internal party dynamics.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
Volume
$3,639Data de Término
23 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The conviction of Marine Le Pen for misuse of European Parliament funds and the July 2027 appeal ruling on her five-year public office ban remain the dominant factors shaping trader positioning in this market. Jordan Bardella, as National Rally president and the party's most prominent figure in recent polling, has consolidated support as the probable standard-bearer if the ban holds, reflecting his strong first-round voting intentions and party infrastructure advantages. Recent municipal election gains and joint outreach to business leaders by both figures have reinforced the party's overall momentum ahead of the 2027 contest, while Le Pen's continued public role sustains residual market share tied to a favorable appeal outcome. The closely divided probabilities underscore uncertainty over the final candidate selection process and any late shifts in internal party dynamics.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election.
If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”.
If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,639Data de Término
23 abr 2027Mercado Aberto
May 1, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The conviction of Marine Le Pen for misuse of European Parliament funds and the July 2027 appeal ruling on her five-year public office ban remain the dominant factors shaping trader positioning in this market. Jordan Bardella, as National Rally president and the party's most prominent figure in recent polling, has consolidated support as the probable standard-bearer if the ban holds, reflecting his strong first-round voting intentions and party infrastructure advantages. Recent municipal election gains and joint outreach to business leaders by both figures have reinforced the party's overall momentum ahead of the 2027 contest, while Le Pen's continued public role sustains residual market share tied to a favorable appeal outcome. The closely divided probabilities underscore uncertainty over the final candidate selection process and any late shifts in internal party dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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