Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, anchored by the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reaffirmed market stability commitments in their May 3 meeting, approving a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June while adjusting quotas, sustaining coordination despite revised lower 2026 global oil demand forecasts released May 13. With Brent crude above $100/barrel supporting fiscal needs, unity incentives remain strong; however, cascading member defections or prolonged supply shocks could pressure the cartel if compliance erodes. Monthly reviews ahead will be pivotal.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,737 Vol.
$16,737 Vol.
31 dez 2026
$16,737 Vol.
$16,737 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, anchored by the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reaffirmed market stability commitments in their May 3 meeting, approving a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June while adjusting quotas, sustaining coordination despite revised lower 2026 global oil demand forecasts released May 13. With Brent crude above $100/barrel supporting fiscal needs, unity incentives remain strong; however, cascading member defections or prolonged supply shocks could pressure the cartel if compliance erodes. Monthly reviews ahead will be pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$16,737Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, anchored by the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reaffirmed market stability commitments in their May 3 meeting, approving a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June while adjusting quotas, sustaining coordination despite revised lower 2026 global oil demand forecasts released May 13. With Brent crude above $100/barrel supporting fiscal needs, unity incentives remain strong; however, cascading member defections or prolonged supply shocks could pressure the cartel if compliance erodes. Monthly reviews ahead will be pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,737Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, anchored by the organization's resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit effective May 1 amid escalating Middle East tensions, including the Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reaffirmed market stability commitments in their May 3 meeting, approving a modest 188,000 barrels-per-day output hike for June while adjusting quotas, sustaining coordination despite revised lower 2026 global oil demand forecasts released May 13. With Brent crude above $100/barrel supporting fiscal needs, unity incentives remain strong; however, cascading member defections or prolonged supply shocks could pressure the cartel if compliance erodes. Monthly reviews ahead will be pivotal.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions