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icon for A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Gronelândia

A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?

icon for A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·Gronelândia

A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?

Sim

6% chance
Polymarket

$76,923 Vol.

Sim

6% chance
Polymarket

$76,923 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a NATO dissolution before 2027 at just 5.5%, reflecting the alliance's institutional resilience amid recent U.S. troop reductions of 5,000 from Germany announced in early May 2026, prompted by allied hesitance on Middle East escalations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of "disintegration" due to eroding U.S. commitment, yet no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one year's notice and unanimous consent to amend the treaty. European allies are accelerating defense spending toward 3.5% GDP targets by 2035 and planning contingencies, while statements from Estonian officials affirm the alliance's endurance. Ongoing unity against Russian threats in Ukraine and structural barriers to disbandment—absent mass exits—anchor the high "No" probability, though U.S. policy shifts post-2027 could test cohesion further.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.

3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,923
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a NATO dissolution before 2027 at just 5.5%, reflecting the alliance's institutional resilience amid recent U.S. troop reductions of 5,000 from Germany announced in early May 2026, prompted by allied hesitance on Middle East escalations. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of "disintegration" due to eroding U.S. commitment, yet no member has invoked Article 13 withdrawal procedures, which require one year's notice and unanimous consent to amend the treaty. European allies are accelerating defense spending toward 3.5% GDP targets by 2035 and planning contingencies, while statements from Estonian officials affirm the alliance's endurance. Ongoing unity against Russian threats in Ukraine and structural barriers to disbandment—absent mass exits—anchor the high "No" probability, though U.S. policy shifts post-2027 could test cohesion further.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.

3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,923
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?" has generated $76.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?" is "A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.