Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
9% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
9% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,475Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,475Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling coalition holds 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, short of the 360-vote threshold needed to advance a new constitution via referendum or early-election renewal under Article 116. While AKP figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated calls for a civilian charter in 2026-2027 and commissions continue preparatory work, no draft legislation, committee markup, or floor vote has materialized by mid-September. Recent statements instead emphasize using existing constitutional provisions to reset presidential term limits without a full rewrite. Traders therefore assign only an 8.5 percent chance that meaningful movement on a new constitution occurs before year-end, reflecting the gap between long-standing rhetoric and the absence of required legislative consensus or procedural steps.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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