Swiss voters face two June 14 measures whose prospects shape trader positioning. The Civilian Service Act amendment, which tightens eligibility for alternative service and reduces transfers from military duty, faces minimal organized opposition and draws broad cross-party support, supporting its 77% implied probability. In contrast, the “No to ten million Switzerland” initiative—championed by the Swiss People’s Party to cap permanent residents at 10 million by 2050 and renegotiate EU free-movement rules—remains tightly contested. Latest GfS Bern polling shows a statistical tie at 47% yes and 47% no, with the government, major cantons, and business groups warning of labor shortages and EU friction. Historical patterns of popular initiatives losing ground in the final weeks reinforce the lower 39% odds assigned to passage of the population cap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$103,391 Vol.
14 jun 2026
Lei do Serviço Civil
76%
Não aos dez milhões de habitantes na Suíça
36%
$103,391 Vol.
Lei do Serviço Civil
$6,337 Vol.
76%
Não aos dez milhões de habitantes na Suíça
$97,054 Vol.
36%
As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 :
- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Swiss voters face two June 14 measures whose prospects shape trader positioning. The Civilian Service Act amendment, which tightens eligibility for alternative service and reduces transfers from military duty, faces minimal organized opposition and draws broad cross-party support, supporting its 77% implied probability. In contrast, the “No to ten million Switzerland” initiative—championed by the Swiss People’s Party to cap permanent residents at 10 million by 2050 and renegotiate EU free-movement rules—remains tightly contested. Latest GfS Bern polling shows a statistical tie at 47% yes and 47% no, with the government, major cantons, and business groups warning of labor shortages and EU friction. Historical patterns of popular initiatives losing ground in the final weeks reinforce the lower 39% odds assigned to passage of the population cap.
As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 :
- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ET
Volume
$103,391Data de Término
14 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 :
- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.Swiss voters face two June 14 measures whose prospects shape trader positioning. The Civilian Service Act amendment, which tightens eligibility for alternative service and reduces transfers from military duty, faces minimal organized opposition and draws broad cross-party support, supporting its 77% implied probability. In contrast, the “No to ten million Switzerland” initiative—championed by the Swiss People’s Party to cap permanent residents at 10 million by 2050 and renegotiate EU free-movement rules—remains tightly contested. Latest GfS Bern polling shows a statistical tie at 47% yes and 47% no, with the government, major cantons, and business groups warning of labor shortages and EU friction. Historical patterns of popular initiatives losing ground in the final weeks reinforce the lower 39% odds assigned to passage of the population cap.
As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 14, 2026 :
- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
- Issue 1: No to ten million Switzerland
- Issue 2: Referendum on the Civilian Service Act
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the nationwide popular vote held in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held.
The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery (https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20260308.html) and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.
Volume
$103,391Data de Término
14 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 3, 2026, 7:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Swiss voters face two June 14 measures whose prospects shape trader positioning. The Civilian Service Act amendment, which tightens eligibility for alternative service and reduces transfers from military duty, faces minimal organized opposition and draws broad cross-party support, supporting its 77% implied probability. In contrast, the “No to ten million Switzerland” initiative—championed by the Swiss People’s Party to cap permanent residents at 10 million by 2050 and renegotiate EU free-movement rules—remains tightly contested. Latest GfS Bern polling shows a statistical tie at 47% yes and 47% no, with the government, major cantons, and business groups warning of labor shortages and EU friction. Historical patterns of popular initiatives losing ground in the final weeks reinforce the lower 39% odds assigned to passage of the population cap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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