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icon for U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Politics·Venezuela

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

icon for U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Politics·Venezuela

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

dez 31

dez 31

9% chance
Polymarket

$71,856 Vol.

9% chance
Polymarket

$71,856 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has prioritized engagement with acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez since the January 2026 U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro, citing practical needs for oil-sector cooperation and regional stability amid high global energy prices. President Trump has repeatedly stated that opposition leader María Corina Machado lacks adequate domestic support or respect to lead, opting instead for phased stabilization under the current interim government rather than immediate recognition of Machado. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has echoed the need for sequential steps before any transition, while Machado—despite meetings with Trump and lawmakers—has focused on her planned return and presidential candidacy later in 2026. These policy choices and public positions have sustained trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Machado by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,856
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration has prioritized engagement with acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez since the January 2026 U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro, citing practical needs for oil-sector cooperation and regional stability amid high global energy prices. President Trump has repeatedly stated that opposition leader María Corina Machado lacks adequate domestic support or respect to lead, opting instead for phased stabilization under the current interim government rather than immediate recognition of Machado. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has echoed the need for sequential steps before any transition, while Machado—despite meetings with Trump and lawmakers—has focused on her planned return and presidential candidacy later in 2026. These policy choices and public positions have sustained trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Machado by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.

A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$71,856
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" has generated $71.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.