U.S. policy under the Trump administration has prioritized stability and economic cooperation with interim President Delcy Rodríguez following the January 2026 removal of Nicolás Maduro, including oil sector agreements and U.S.-backed talks involving other opposition figures such as Dinorah Figuera. These negotiations focus on institutional reforms and eventual elections but have sidelined María Corina Machado's movement, reflecting administration concerns over her return from exile and preference for gradual transition over rapid leadership shifts. With no scheduled recognition of Machado by year-end and ongoing reticence from U.S. officials, traders assign a 97.3% probability to "No." Late developments such as a policy reversal, accelerated election timeline, or successful return by Machado could still alter the outcome before December 31.