Skip to main content
icon for Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?
Economia·Carcaça

Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?

icon for Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?
Economia·Carcaça

Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?

set 30

set 30

< $1,176M 58%

$1,176M - $1,198M 34%

$1,220M - $1,242M 10.5%

$1,198M - $1,220M 6%

Polymarket

$36,725 Vol.

< $1,176M 58%

$1,176M - $1,198M 34%

$1,220M - $1,242M 10.5%

$1,198M - $1,220M 6%

Polymarket

$36,725 Vol.

< $1,176M

$14,621 Vol.

58%

$1,176M - $1,198M

$13,774 Vol.

34%

$1,198M - $1,220M

$1,816 Vol.

6%

$1,220M - $1,242M

$1,808 Vol.

8%

$1,242M - $1,264M

$2,731 Vol.

6%

$1.264M - $1.284M

$904 Vol.

<1%

US$ 1,284M+

$1,072 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent strength in the San Francisco metro housing market, fueled by AI-driven tech employment and persistent low inventory, has pushed typical home values to around $1.416 million as of late July 2026 with double-digit year-over-year gains, yet trader consensus heavily favors outcomes below $1.198 million by September 30. This positioning reflects expectations of seasonal softening into early fall, when buyer activity typically declines after the spring-summer peak, alongside stabilizing mortgage rates and potential moderation in luxury segment bidding. Broader Bay Area medians near $1.4 million highlight competitive pressures in core San Francisco but also early signs of cooling in adjacent counties, while forward-looking factors such as Federal Reserve policy signals and any uptick in listings could further anchor values near current levels. The heavy weighting toward sub-$1.2 million brackets captures market-implied odds of limited near-term appreciation before the September 30 resolution.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$36,725
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent strength in the San Francisco metro housing market, fueled by AI-driven tech employment and persistent low inventory, has pushed typical home values to around $1.416 million as of late July 2026 with double-digit year-over-year gains, yet trader consensus heavily favors outcomes below $1.198 million by September 30. This positioning reflects expectations of seasonal softening into early fall, when buyer activity typically declines after the spring-summer peak, alongside stabilizing mortgage rates and potential moderation in luxury segment bidding. Broader Bay Area medians near $1.4 million highlight competitive pressures in core San Francisco but also early signs of cooling in adjacent counties, while forward-looking factors such as Federal Reserve policy signals and any uptick in listings could further anchor values near current levels. The heavy weighting toward sub-$1.2 million brackets captures market-implied odds of limited near-term appreciation before the September 30 resolution.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$36,725
Data de Término
30 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)

Relacionado

icon for O valor mediano das casas nos EUA será inferior a US$ 419.000 em 30 de setembro?

O valor mediano das casas nos EUA será inferior a US$ 419.000 em 30 de setembro?

55%
Sim
icon for O valor mediano das casas na região metropolitana de DC estará entre $512.000 e $518.000 em 30 de setembro?

O valor mediano das casas na região metropolitana de DC estará entre $512.000 e $518.000 em 30 de setembro?

40%
Sim
icon for O valor mediano das casas na região metropolitana de Austin será inferior a $446.000 em 30 de setembro?

O valor mediano das casas na região metropolitana de Austin será inferior a $446.000 em 30 de setembro?

67%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "< $1,176M" at 58%, followed by "$1,176M - $1,198M" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" has generated $36.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" is "< $1,176M" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$1,176M - $1,198M" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.