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icon for Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?
Economia·Parcl

Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?

icon for Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?
Economia·Parcl

Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?

out 11

out 11

$1,176M - $1,198M 46.3%

< $1,176M 41%

$1,198M - $1,220M 2.9%

$1,220M - $1,242M <1%

Polymarket

$52,963 Vol.

$1,176M - $1,198M 46.3%

< $1,176M 41%

$1,198M - $1,220M 2.9%

$1,220M - $1,242M <1%

Polymarket

$52,963 Vol.

< $1,176M

$26,476 Vol.

41%

$1,176M - $1,198M

$15,308 Vol.

46%

$1,198M - $1,220M

$2,389 Vol.

3%

$1,220M - $1,242M

$2,283 Vol.

1%

$1,242M - $1,264M

$3,643 Vol.

<1%

$1.264M - $1.284M

$1,380 Vol.

1%

US$ 1,284M+

$1,484 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent Zillow Home Value Index data for the San Francisco metro shows a typical home value of $1.123 million as of August 2026, reflecting 2.3% year-over-year growth amid chronically low inventory and persistent seller’s market conditions. AI-driven wealth in the tech sector continues to support luxury and single-family segments, with median sale prices often exceeding list by double digits, though broader metro figures incorporate more affordable segments that temper overall appreciation. Mortgage rates near 6% and seasonal fall slowdowns introduce downside pressure, while cash buyers and limited new supply provide a floor. With the September 30 resolution imminent and the two leading bins separated by just a few percentage points in implied probability, modest month-over-month gains or flat readings will determine whether the index settles below or within the $1.176–1.198 million range.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$52,963
Data de Término
11 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent Zillow Home Value Index data for the San Francisco metro shows a typical home value of $1.123 million as of August 2026, reflecting 2.3% year-over-year growth amid chronically low inventory and persistent seller’s market conditions. AI-driven wealth in the tech sector continues to support luxury and single-family segments, with median sale prices often exceeding list by double digits, though broader metro figures incorporate more affordable segments that temper overall appreciation. Mortgage rates near 6% and seasonal fall slowdowns introduce downside pressure, while cash buyers and limited new supply provide a floor. With the September 30 resolution imminent and the two leading bins separated by just a few percentage points in implied probability, modest month-over-month gains or flat readings will determine whether the index settles below or within the $1.176–1.198 million range.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
Volume
$52,963
Data de Término
11 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$1,176M - $1,198M" at 46%, followed by "< $1,176M" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" has generated $53K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" is "$1,176M - $1,198M" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "< $1,176M" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual será o valor médio da casa na área metropolitana de SF no dia 30 de setembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.