Trader sentiment currently assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of 2026, reflecting steady but incremental gains in large language model capabilities across reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants have lifted top scores into the 1500–1560 range, yet traders see limited near-term acceleration from scaling laws or architectural shifts. Anthropic holds the next-highest share at 33.5% on the strength of its consistent leadership in agentic workflows and high-Elo coding sub-leaderboards, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 10.5% amid competitive but narrower edges in long-context science tasks. Key upcoming catalysts include major model updates expected before year-end that could alter these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?
Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?
Nenhum em 2026 58%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Nenhum em 2026
58%
Anthropic
33%
11%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Nenhum em 2026 58%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
OpenAI 2.8%
$54,452 Vol.
$54,452 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Nenhum em 2026
$10,084 Vol.
58%
Anthropic
$6,982 Vol.
33%
$7,388 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$7,444 Vol.
3%
xAI
$5,414 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$3,688 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment currently assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of 2026, reflecting steady but incremental gains in large language model capabilities across reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants have lifted top scores into the 1500–1560 range, yet traders see limited near-term acceleration from scaling laws or architectural shifts. Anthropic holds the next-highest share at 33.5% on the strength of its consistent leadership in agentic workflows and high-Elo coding sub-leaderboards, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 10.5% amid competitive but narrower edges in long-context science tasks. Key upcoming catalysts include major model updates expected before year-end that could alter these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$54,452Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment currently assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of 2026, reflecting steady but incremental gains in large language model capabilities across reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants have lifted top scores into the 1500–1560 range, yet traders see limited near-term acceleration from scaling laws or architectural shifts. Anthropic holds the next-highest share at 33.5% on the strength of its consistent leadership in agentic workflows and high-Elo coding sub-leaderboards, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 10.5% amid competitive but narrower edges in long-context science tasks. Key upcoming catalysts include major model updates expected before year-end that could alter these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$54,452Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment currently assigns a 58% implied probability to no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of 2026, reflecting steady but incremental gains in large language model capabilities across reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks. Recent releases such as Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 series and OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants have lifted top scores into the 1500–1560 range, yet traders see limited near-term acceleration from scaling laws or architectural shifts. Anthropic holds the next-highest share at 33.5% on the strength of its consistent leadership in agentic workflows and high-Elo coding sub-leaderboards, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 10.5% amid competitive but narrower edges in long-context science tasks. Key upcoming catalysts include major model updates expected before year-end that could alter these market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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