Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?
Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?
Nenhum em 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
xAI 2.4%
$54,463 Vol.
$54,463 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Nenhum em 2026
57%
Anthropic
33%
11%
xAI
2%
OpenAI
2%
Alibaba
1%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Nenhum em 2026 57%
Anthropic 33%
Google 11%
xAI 2.4%
$54,463 Vol.
$54,463 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Nenhum em 2026
$10,095 Vol.
57%
Anthropic
$6,982 Vol.
33%
$7,388 Vol.
11%
xAI
$5,414 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$7,444 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$4,750 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$3,688 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$4,795 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,908 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volume
$54,463Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$54,463Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 57% chance that no large language model reaches 1550 ELO on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard in 2026, driven by the tight clustering of frontier systems around 1500-1530 following rapid April and May releases. Anthropic’s 33% share reflects Claude Opus 4.7’s recent sweeps in coding and agentic-reasoning sub-benchmarks, positioning the company as the nearest to sustained threshold gains. Google’s 10.5% accounts for Gemini 3.1 Pro’s multimodal and long-context strengths, while OpenAI and xAI trail at roughly 2% each amid frequent but incremental GPT-5.5 and Grok updates. Safety-testing pacts and converging performance across labs further support the view that crossing 1550 will require more than current iteration cycles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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