Strong pre-release momentum from record-breaking $74.5 million in domestic previews and critical scores near 91% on Rotten Tomatoes underpin the 71% market-implied probability that Spider-Man: Brand New Day tops Avengers: Endgame’s opening weekend benchmark. Traders are pricing in Tom Holland’s enduring draw, Destin Daniel Cretton’s direction, and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher return alongside robust international tracking that some services peg above $400 million globally. While domestic forecasts cluster between $195 million and $300 million—still short of Endgame’s $357 million North American record—upside scenarios tied to front-loaded fan demand and minimal competition this weekend sustain the bullish consensus. The July 31 release and immediate box-office data drops remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHomem-Aranha: Novo Dia baterá o recorde de fim de semana de estreia de Vingadores: Ultimato?
Homem-Aranha: Novo Dia baterá o recorde de fim de semana de estreia de Vingadores: Ultimato?
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
2 ago 2026
Sim
NOVO
NOVO
2 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong pre-release momentum from record-breaking $74.5 million in domestic previews and critical scores near 91% on Rotten Tomatoes underpin the 71% market-implied probability that Spider-Man: Brand New Day tops Avengers: Endgame’s opening weekend benchmark. Traders are pricing in Tom Holland’s enduring draw, Destin Daniel Cretton’s direction, and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher return alongside robust international tracking that some services peg above $400 million globally. While domestic forecasts cluster between $195 million and $300 million—still short of Endgame’s $357 million North American record—upside scenarios tied to front-loaded fan demand and minimal competition this weekend sustain the bullish consensus. The July 31 release and immediate box-office data drops remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,217Data de Término
2 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Strong pre-release momentum from record-breaking $74.5 million in domestic previews and critical scores near 91% on Rotten Tomatoes underpin the 71% market-implied probability that Spider-Man: Brand New Day tops Avengers: Endgame’s opening weekend benchmark. Traders are pricing in Tom Holland’s enduring draw, Destin Daniel Cretton’s direction, and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher return alongside robust international tracking that some services peg above $400 million globally. While domestic forecasts cluster between $195 million and $300 million—still short of Endgame’s $357 million North American record—upside scenarios tied to front-loaded fan demand and minimal competition this weekend sustain the bullish consensus. The July 31 release and immediate box-office data drops remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has a domestic Opening Weekend Box Office gross greater than the equivalent figure for "Avengers: Endgame" of $357,115,007. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (July 31 - August 2) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$3,217Data de Término
2 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong pre-release momentum from record-breaking $74.5 million in domestic previews and critical scores near 91% on Rotten Tomatoes underpin the 71% market-implied probability that Spider-Man: Brand New Day tops Avengers: Endgame’s opening weekend benchmark. Traders are pricing in Tom Holland’s enduring draw, Destin Daniel Cretton’s direction, and Jon Bernthal’s Punisher return alongside robust international tracking that some services peg above $400 million globally. While domestic forecasts cluster between $195 million and $300 million—still short of Endgame’s $357 million North American record—upside scenarios tied to front-loaded fan demand and minimal competition this weekend sustain the bullish consensus. The July 31 release and immediate box-office data drops remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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A bilheteria do fim de semana de estreia de "Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia" será superior a 280 milhões?
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Sim
A bilheteria do fim de semana de estreia de "Homem-Aranha: Um Novo Dia" será de pelo menos 350 milhões?
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