Persistent monthly inflation near 2.9% and revised analyst forecasts placing 2026 CPI at 30–33% continue to anchor trader expectations for ongoing nominal peso depreciation under the central bank’s crawling-peg regime. With the spot official rate near 1,400 ARS per USD, the market-implied 35.5% probability on a year-end print below 1,600 reflects the baseline path of gradual adjustment needed to narrow the official-parallel gap while the BCRA rebuilds reserves ahead of roughly $20 billion in 2026 maturities. Recent Fitch upgrade to B- and firmer fiscal balances have capped tail-risk pricing above 2,000, yet sticky price pressures and the need to maintain competitiveness keep the 1,600–1,699 bracket as the next most favored outcome at 18.0%.