Incumbent Republican Eli Crane holds a narrow but consistent lead over Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez in Arizona’s 2nd congressional district following the November 3 general election, with unofficial results showing Crane ahead by roughly 1.2 points after 90 percent of votes counted. The mostly rural, Republican-leaning district, which Trump carried by double digits in 2024, has seen stronger performance for Crane in counties such as Yavapai as ballots continue to be tallied. Forecasters had rated the rematch Lean or Likely Republican ahead of Election Day, aligning with trader consensus that favors Crane. A margin under 0.5 percent could trigger an automatic recount under state law, while remaining votes from tribal areas or certification processes represent the main variables that could still shift the outcome.