Recent Bank of Russia communications following the April 24 cut of 50 basis points to 14.50 percent have anchored market-implied odds at 74 percent for another decrease at the July 24 meeting. The central bank narrowed its 2026 average key rate corridor to 14.0–14.5 percent while noting underlying inflation pressures holding near 4–5 percent annualized and annual inflation near 5.7 percent. Cooling domestic demand, moderating inflation expectations, and prior monetary tightening effects support continued easing toward the 4 percent target. Pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external conditions sustain the 21 percent probability of no change, with the June 19 meeting and upcoming inflation releases serving as key near-term catalysts for any shift in trader sentiment.