The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.7%
2.4-2.6% 7.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.9%
$29,743 Объем
$29,743 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.7%
2.4-2.6% 7.2%
2.6-2.8% 2.9%
$29,743 Объем
$29,743 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
<2.0%
$1,370 Объем
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Объем
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Объем
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Объем
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Объем
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Объем
17%
3.0%+
$11,574 Объем
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Открытие рынка: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Объем
$29,743Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Объем
$29,743Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan's September 17-18 decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, alongside persistent core inflation near 1.7-1.8% and expectations for a terminal rate of 1.5-1.75% or higher, has anchored trader expectations for elevated long-term yields. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Takaichi, including planned consumption tax cuts and higher JGB issuance, have lifted term premiums and prompted upward revisions in end-2026 forecasts to around 3% by houses such as Oxford Economics. The 10-year JGB yield trading near 3%—its highest level since 1996—reflects these dynamics, with market-implied odds heavily favoring outcomes above 3.0% as participants price in sustained monetary tightening and fiscal risks ahead of the December budget process.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы