Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from the Q2 preliminary print of just 1.1% annualized QoQ—well below the 2.0% consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital spending amid elevated import costs and Middle East tensions. Forecasters now project modest Q3 expansion near 0.05–0.7% annualized, reflecting persistent softness in domestic demand offset by AI-related export strength and net trade gains. With the Bank of Japan maintaining a gradual tightening path and inflation risks tilted higher, trader sentiment clusters around low-single-digit positive outcomes while assigning notable probability to contraction scenarios if consumption weakens further or geopolitical pressures intensify ahead of the November preliminary release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0.0%–0.8% 32%
0.8%–1.6% 26%
-1.6%– -0.8% 16%
-0.8%–0.0% 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 нояб. 2026 г.
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
16%
-0.8%–0.0%
15%
0.0%–0.8%
32%
0.8%–1.6%
26%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
1%
3.2%–4.0%
7%
4.0%+
3%
0.0%–0.8% 32%
0.8%–1.6% 26%
-1.6%– -0.8% 16%
-0.8%–0.0% 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 нояб. 2026 г.
<-2.4%
$50 Объем
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,494 Объем
5%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$70 Объем
16%
-0.8%–0.0%
$100 Объем
15%
0.0%–0.8%
$563 Объем
32%
0.8%–1.6%
$110 Объем
26%
1.6%–2.4%
$50 Объем
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$1,604 Объем
1%
3.2%–4.0%
$50 Объем
7%
4.0%+
$335 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from the Q2 preliminary print of just 1.1% annualized QoQ—well below the 2.0% consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital spending amid elevated import costs and Middle East tensions. Forecasters now project modest Q3 expansion near 0.05–0.7% annualized, reflecting persistent softness in domestic demand offset by AI-related export strength and net trade gains. With the Bank of Japan maintaining a gradual tightening path and inflation risks tilted higher, trader sentiment clusters around low-single-digit positive outcomes while assigning notable probability to contraction scenarios if consumption weakens further or geopolitical pressures intensify ahead of the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Объем
$5,426Дата окончания
16 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from the Q2 preliminary print of just 1.1% annualized QoQ—well below the 2.0% consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital spending amid elevated import costs and Middle East tensions. Forecasters now project modest Q3 expansion near 0.05–0.7% annualized, reflecting persistent softness in domestic demand offset by AI-related export strength and net trade gains. With the Bank of Japan maintaining a gradual tightening path and inflation risks tilted higher, trader sentiment clusters around low-single-digit positive outcomes while assigning notable probability to contraction scenarios if consumption weakens further or geopolitical pressures intensify ahead of the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Объем
$5,426Дата окончания
16 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth faces headwinds from the Q2 preliminary print of just 1.1% annualized QoQ—well below the 2.0% consensus—driven by flat private consumption and weaker capital spending amid elevated import costs and Middle East tensions. Forecasters now project modest Q3 expansion near 0.05–0.7% annualized, reflecting persistent softness in domestic demand offset by AI-related export strength and net trade gains. With the Bank of Japan maintaining a gradual tightening path and inflation risks tilted higher, trader sentiment clusters around low-single-digit positive outcomes while assigning notable probability to contraction scenarios if consumption weakens further or geopolitical pressures intensify ahead of the November preliminary release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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