The closely balanced market-implied odds around the Bank of Russia's September 2026 key rate decision reflect uncertainty following its June 19 cut of 25 basis points to 14.25%, which fell short of the 50 basis point consensus. Persistent pro-inflationary pressures, including May inflation at 5.3% versus the 4% target, wage growth outpacing productivity, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries, and more accommodative fiscal policy, prompted the central bank to signal that further easing depends on sustained disinflation and inflation expectations. This cautious stance, against the bank's 4.5–5.5% 2026 inflation forecast and upcoming July data releases, creates competitive dynamics where no change or a modest decrease both remain plausible depending on incoming labor and price data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение Банка России в сентябре?
Без изменений 45%
Снижение 43%
Увеличение 43%
Снижение
43%
Без изменений
45%
Увеличение
43%
Без изменений 45%
Снижение 43%
Увеличение 43%
Снижение
43%
Без изменений
45%
Увеличение
43%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 23, 2026, 8:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its September 11, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their September 11, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely balanced market-implied odds around the Bank of Russia's September 2026 key rate decision reflect uncertainty following its June 19 cut of 25 basis points to 14.25%, which fell short of the 50 basis point consensus. Persistent pro-inflationary pressures, including May inflation at 5.3% versus the 4% target, wage growth outpacing productivity, elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries, and more accommodative fiscal policy, prompted the central bank to signal that further easing depends on sustained disinflation and inflation expectations. This cautious stance, against the bank's 4.5–5.5% 2026 inflation forecast and upcoming July data releases, creates competitive dynamics where no change or a modest decrease both remain plausible depending on incoming labor and price data.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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