Recent Bank of Russia communications and the April 2026 decision to lower the key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5 percent have anchored trader expectations for another cut at the July meeting. With annual inflation at 5.7 percent in late April and underlying pressures holding in the 4–5 percent annualized range, the central bank’s updated 2026 average rate corridor of 14.0–14.5 percent signals continued easing as disinflation progresses toward the 4 percent target. Cooling domestic demand, prior monetary tightening effects, and moderating inflation expectations support the 74 percent market-implied probability of a decrease, while pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external conditions keep the 21 percent no-change odds in play. The June 19 meeting and forthcoming inflation data releases remain key near-term catalysts.