Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено200-219 21%
220-239 20%
180-199 17%
240-259 13.4%
$986,776 Объем
$986,776 Объем
3 июл. 2026 г.
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
3%
160-179
10%
180-199
17%
200-219
21%
220-239
20%
240-259
13%
260-279
6%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
2%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 21%
220-239 20%
180-199 17%
240-259 13.4%
$986,776 Объем
$986,776 Объем
3 июл. 2026 г.
20-39
$6,442 Объем
<1%
40-59
$1,158 Объем
<1%
60-79
$15,470 Объем
<1%
80-99
$69,893 Объем
<1%
100-119
$82,571 Объем
<1%
120-139
$48,964 Объем
1%
140-159
$23,835 Объем
3%
160-179
$17,505 Объем
10%
180-199
$26,453 Объем
17%
200-219
$15,185 Объем
21%
220-239
$14,494 Объем
20%
240-259
$20,634 Объем
13%
260-279
$16,908 Объем
6%
280-299
$16,503 Объем
3%
300-319
$17,053 Объем
2%
320-339
$30,015 Объем
2%
340-359
$27,154 Объем
<1%
360-379
$22,476 Объем
<1%
380-399
$21,952 Объем
<1%
400-419
$37,578 Объем
<1%
420-439
$39,210 Объем
<1%
440-459
$90,312 Объем
<1%
460-479
$82,398 Объем
<1%
480-499
$101,810 Объем
<1%
500+
$124,364 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Объем
$986,776Дата окончания
3 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 26 12:00 PM ET to July 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Объем
$986,776Дата окончания
3 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s prolific posting cadence on X, averaging 30–70 daily tweets in recent months amid business updates, political commentary, and real-time reactions, underpins the tight contest between the 440-459 and 460-479 ranges at roughly 43% and 42.5% implied probability. Traders weigh his baseline activity—often elevated by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments or viral cultural moments—against potential dips from travel or external commitments, while noting historical weekly totals frequently cluster in this band. The narrow spread reflects uncertainty over whether a typical seven-day stretch will tip slightly higher or lower, with momentum hinging on any late-June news cycles that could accelerate engagement.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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