Trader consensus on a low likelihood of any hantavirus vaccine by the end of 2026 stems from the fact that all candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 stages, with no Phase 3 efficacy trials underway for strains like Andes virus that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Recent mRNA work by Moderna with Korea University and single-dose candidates from UTMB showed strong animal protection in 2025–2026 studies, while a Korean government project launched mid-2026 focuses on optimization and safety testing through 2027. The MV Hondius outbreak raised visibility but did not accelerate regulatory pathways enough for licensure. A realistic shift would require emergency-use authorization or massive new funding to compress timelines, though historical precedents for rare-disease vaccines indicate this remains improbable within the current window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
3% вероятность
$139,010 Объем
$139,010 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3% вероятность
$139,010 Объем
$139,010 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a low likelihood of any hantavirus vaccine by the end of 2026 stems from the fact that all candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 stages, with no Phase 3 efficacy trials underway for strains like Andes virus that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Recent mRNA work by Moderna with Korea University and single-dose candidates from UTMB showed strong animal protection in 2025–2026 studies, while a Korean government project launched mid-2026 focuses on optimization and safety testing through 2027. The MV Hondius outbreak raised visibility but did not accelerate regulatory pathways enough for licensure. A realistic shift would require emergency-use authorization or massive new funding to compress timelines, though historical precedents for rare-disease vaccines indicate this remains improbable within the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Объем
$139,010Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a low likelihood of any hantavirus vaccine by the end of 2026 stems from the fact that all candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 stages, with no Phase 3 efficacy trials underway for strains like Andes virus that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Recent mRNA work by Moderna with Korea University and single-dose candidates from UTMB showed strong animal protection in 2025–2026 studies, while a Korean government project launched mid-2026 focuses on optimization and safety testing through 2027. The MV Hondius outbreak raised visibility but did not accelerate regulatory pathways enough for licensure. A realistic shift would require emergency-use authorization or massive new funding to compress timelines, though historical precedents for rare-disease vaccines indicate this remains improbable within the current window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$139,010Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a low likelihood of any hantavirus vaccine by the end of 2026 stems from the fact that all candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 stages, with no Phase 3 efficacy trials underway for strains like Andes virus that cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Recent mRNA work by Moderna with Korea University and single-dose candidates from UTMB showed strong animal protection in 2025–2026 studies, while a Korean government project launched mid-2026 focuses on optimization and safety testing through 2027. The MV Hondius outbreak raised visibility but did not accelerate regulatory pathways enough for licensure. A realistic shift would require emergency-use authorization or massive new funding to compress timelines, though historical precedents for rare-disease vaccines indicate this remains improbable within the current window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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