Trader consensus on a 97.9% implied probability of no Ebola pandemic in 2026 reflects the Bundibugyo virus outbreak's concentration in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where over 9,000 confirmed cases and roughly 4,400 deaths have been reported through mid-October amid a WHO-declared Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Transmission occurs only through direct contact with bodily fluids of symptomatic individuals, enabling effective containment via contact tracing, isolation, and border screening that has limited secondary spread to a handful of imported cases in Uganda, Kenya, and France without sustained community transmission elsewhere. Historical precedent from the larger 2014–2016 West Africa epidemic, combined with ongoing surveillance by CDC and WHO, supports the view that escalation to pandemic thresholds remains improbable before year-end absent major disruptions such as widespread conflict-related breakdowns in response infrastructure or unexpected increases in transmissibility.