Trader consensus implies a 78% probability that the CDC will not issue a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, reflecting current CDC surveillance data showing no active Level 4 or even Level 3 travel health notices amid contained outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 avian influenza cases—71 in the US since 2024, including a recent cat-to-human transmission confirmed May 13—lack evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, keeping it below notice thresholds. Global polio circulation prompted a Level 2 update in March 2026 for 30+ countries, while clade II mpox remains Level 2 in Ghana and Liberia, and rising measles cases sustain only a Level 1 global alert urging MMR vaccination. Absent explosive epidemics, traders anticipate ongoing monitoring through the 2026 respiratory season without escalation to Level 4 criteria.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCDC выпустит предупреждение 4-го уровня до 31 декабря?
CDC выпустит предупреждение 4-го уровня до 31 декабря?
Да
$71,394 Объем
$71,394 Объем
Да
$71,394 Объем
$71,394 Объем
A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 78% probability that the CDC will not issue a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, reflecting current CDC surveillance data showing no active Level 4 or even Level 3 travel health notices amid contained outbreaks. Sporadic H5N1 avian influenza cases—71 in the US since 2024, including a recent cat-to-human transmission confirmed May 13—lack evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, keeping it below notice thresholds. Global polio circulation prompted a Level 2 update in March 2026 for 30+ countries, while clade II mpox remains Level 2 in Ghana and Liberia, and rising measles cases sustain only a Level 1 global alert urging MMR vaccination. Absent explosive epidemics, traders anticipate ongoing monitoring through the 2026 respiratory season without escalation to Level 4 criteria.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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