Forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international numerical weather prediction systems show strong consensus for a peak temperature of 34–35°C in Ankara on August 22 under clear skies, light southwesterly winds, and dry adiabatic warming typical of the region’s continental climate in late summer. Recent runs indicate minimal cloud cover and negligible precipitation risk, supporting efficient surface heating during peak insolation hours, with afternoon values likely reaching or slightly exceeding the seasonal average high near 32°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 35°C (59.5%) and 34°C (32.5%) reflects this tight clustering of guidance, while the low probabilities for 36°C or higher capture only minor ensemble spread or localized urban heat-island effects. Updated model outputs and official bulletins expected overnight will provide the final confirmation ahead of market resolution.