Meteorological consensus from the China Meteorological Administration places Chengdu under the Western Pacific Subtropical High on August 14, driving clear to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and strong solar heating that supports a daily maximum near 37°C. Ensemble model runs align on this outcome, consistent with typical mid-August conditions in the Sichuan Basin where high pressure suppresses convection and maintains elevated surface temperatures. The market's 100% implied probability for 37°C reflects this strong scientific agreement backed by real-time observations. Minor deviations remain possible if localized cloud buildup or measurement timing at official stations shifts the recorded peak slightly lower.