**Latest forecast guidance from models and agencies like the China Meteorological Administration points to a peak temperature in the upper 30s Celsius for Chengdu on July 22, 2026, amid the influence of the Western Pacific Subtropical High.** This ridge typically sustains hot, subsiding air over the Sichuan Basin during peak summer, amplified by the urban heat island effect and high humidity that limits nighttime cooling. Recent model runs show modest variability, with some projecting 38–39°C under partly cloudy conditions and others allowing brief excursions toward 40–41°C if subsidence strengthens or winds remain light. Incoming moisture or a weak frontal boundary could cap readings near 37–38°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 39–41°C because these thresholds align with ensemble spreads and historical July extremes, while probabilities drop sharply outside this window as resolution nears. Updated model outputs expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine the outcome.