Trader sentiment for Seoul's July 22 minimum temperature reflects uncertainty in East Asian monsoon conditions, with leading outcomes clustered at 23–25°C (roughly 60% combined implied probability). Persistent high humidity, variable cloud cover, and potential afternoon thunderstorms limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping morning lows near or slightly below the 25°C July average per Korea Meteorological Administration climatology. Recent model runs show light winds and scattered rain that could suppress or slightly elevate the low depending on timing and urban heat island effects. New short-range forecasts and updated KMA guidance ahead of the 22nd will clarify whether conditions trend toward the 22–24°C range or hold warmer near 25–26°C.