Persistent subtropical high pressure and the enclosed Sichuan Basin topography are sustaining elevated surface temperatures across Chongqing, with ensemble forecasts from major models indicating a most likely daily maximum near 35–36°C on August 23 amid high humidity that limits nocturnal cooling. Recent runs show modest spread from possible scattered showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap peaks below 35°C, while stronger ridging supports a smaller but non-negligible chance of 38°C or higher under clear, subsiding air. Historical August climatology places typical maxima at 32–36°C, providing context for the tight market clustering around these thresholds. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF over the next 24–48 hours will refine boundary-layer moisture and steering flow, directly influencing resolution probabilities.