Recent model runs from sources like Météo-France and ECMWF show high uncertainty for Paris maximum temperatures on July 5, with ensemble spreads placing the most likely outcomes between 29–32 °C. Following the late-June heatwave that set national records near 40 °C, a weakening high-pressure ridge and increasing northwesterly flow are expected to moderate conditions, while urban heat-island effects and variable cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could add 1–2 °C locally. Traders assign the highest probability to 31 °C because it aligns with the median of current guidance, whereas lower probabilities for 34 °C or above reflect the risk of residual warmth if subsidence strengthens, and slim odds for 29 °C or cooler hinge on faster advection of maritime air. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon observations on July 4–5 will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Paris on July 5?
30°C 38%
31°C 35%
29°C 15.0%
32°C 8%
$24,179 Объем
$24,179 Объем
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
15%
30°C
38%
31°C
35%
32°C
8%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 38%
31°C 35%
29°C 15.0%
32°C 8%
$24,179 Объем
$24,179 Объем
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
15%
30°C
38%
31°C
35%
32°C
8%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 3, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from sources like Météo-France and ECMWF show high uncertainty for Paris maximum temperatures on July 5, with ensemble spreads placing the most likely outcomes between 29–32 °C. Following the late-June heatwave that set national records near 40 °C, a weakening high-pressure ridge and increasing northwesterly flow are expected to moderate conditions, while urban heat-island effects and variable cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could add 1–2 °C locally. Traders assign the highest probability to 31 °C because it aligns with the median of current guidance, whereas lower probabilities for 34 °C or above reflect the risk of residual warmth if subsidence strengthens, and slim odds for 29 °C or cooler hinge on faster advection of maritime air. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon observations on July 4–5 will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы