Current short-range ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw’s August 9 maximum temperature centered on 25–26 °C, with modest spread arising from subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the strength of the surface high-pressure ridge over central Europe. These conditions favor modest daytime heating under partly sunny skies and light winds, keeping values near the long-term early-August climatological mean of roughly 24–25 °C. Official IMGW guidance and recent model runs have not yet converged on whether the peak will reach or fall just short of 26 °C, producing the near-even market split between those two outcomes. Updated 12–24 h forecasts issued over the next day will likely narrow the range and drive any remaining price movement.