Forecast models from sources like the National Weather Service equivalents and European centers show Warsaw under a moderately unstable air mass on July 14, with thundershowers and increased cloud cover expected to cap daytime heating near 24–26°C. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 24°C (33.5%) and 25°C (25.5%), reflecting uncertainty in exact convective timing and boundary-layer moisture that can suppress or enhance peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Climatologically, mid-July averages hover near 25°C, but recent regional patterns suggest limited warm advection from the south. Updated high-resolution runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as the event nears resolution.