Global seismicity data from the USGS indicate an average of roughly 1,500 magnitude 5+ earthquakes annually, with M5.5+ events occurring at a rate that produces well over 9 per week in typical conditions. This long-term baseline, consistent across recent decades with only modest year-to-year fluctuations driven by natural variability in tectonic stress release, underpins the strong market consensus for more than nine events during the June 8–14 window. Short-term deviations remain possible due to the stochastic nature of fault slip and the limited predictive power of current monitoring for exact weekly totals, but no unusual seismic quieting or clustering has emerged in official catalogs to shift expectations. Upcoming USGS updates on global activity will provide the next observational check.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько 5,5 и выше землетрясений 8 июня - 14 июня?
>9 95%
8 3.2%
9 1.6%
7 <1%
$26,288 Объем
$26,288 Объем
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
3%
9
2%
>9
95%
>9 95%
8 3.2%
9 1.6%
7 <1%
$26,288 Объем
$26,288 Объем
≤3
<1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6
1%
7
1%
8
3%
9
2%
>9
95%
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Jun 5, 2026, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismicity data from the USGS indicate an average of roughly 1,500 magnitude 5+ earthquakes annually, with M5.5+ events occurring at a rate that produces well over 9 per week in typical conditions. This long-term baseline, consistent across recent decades with only modest year-to-year fluctuations driven by natural variability in tectonic stress release, underpins the strong market consensus for more than nine events during the June 8–14 window. Short-term deviations remain possible due to the stochastic nature of fault slip and the limited predictive power of current monitoring for exact weekly totals, but no unusual seismic quieting or clustering has emerged in official catalogs to shift expectations. Upcoming USGS updates on global activity will provide the next observational check.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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