Recent USGS monitoring data confirm three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during the August 10–16 window, including a 7.4 event at 110 km depth in western Colombia’s Chocó region on August 10 and a 7.7 shallow offshore quake near Indonesia’s East Nusa Tenggara on August 14. These align with typical weekly clustering along subduction zones and the global average of roughly 15–20 such events annually. With the period nearly complete on August 16, trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for exactly three reflects the low likelihood of an additional qualifying shock before resolution. A new event today—such as an aftershock sequence or unrelated rupture in the Pacific Ring of Fire—remains the primary scenario that could shift the total to four.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько 6,5 и выше землетрясений 10 августа - 16 августа?
Сколько 6,5 и выше землетрясений 10 августа - 16 августа?
3 92.0%
4 4.5%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$34,998 Объем
$34,998 Объем
10 авг. 2026 г.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
<1%
3
92%
4
5%
5
1%
>5
1%
3 92.0%
4 4.5%
5 <1%
>5 <1%
$34,998 Объем
$34,998 Объем
10 авг. 2026 г.
0
$11,993 Объем
<1%
1
$6,814 Объем
<1%
2
$6,864 Объем
<1%
3
$4,472 Объем
92%
4
$1,105 Объем
5%
5
$1,025 Объем
1%
>5
$2,726 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring data confirm three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during the August 10–16 window, including a 7.4 event at 110 km depth in western Colombia’s Chocó region on August 10 and a 7.7 shallow offshore quake near Indonesia’s East Nusa Tenggara on August 14. These align with typical weekly clustering along subduction zones and the global average of roughly 15–20 such events annually. With the period nearly complete on August 16, trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for exactly three reflects the low likelihood of an additional qualifying shock before resolution. A new event today—such as an aftershock sequence or unrelated rupture in the Pacific Ring of Fire—remains the primary scenario that could shift the total to four.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Открытие рынка: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
Объем
$34,998Дата окончания
17 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring data confirm three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during the August 10–16 window, including a 7.4 event at 110 km depth in western Colombia’s Chocó region on August 10 and a 7.7 shallow offshore quake near Indonesia’s East Nusa Tenggara on August 14. These align with typical weekly clustering along subduction zones and the global average of roughly 15–20 such events annually. With the period nearly complete on August 16, trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for exactly three reflects the low likelihood of an additional qualifying shock before resolution. A new event today—such as an aftershock sequence or unrelated rupture in the Pacific Ring of Fire—remains the primary scenario that could shift the total to four.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Объем
$34,998Дата окончания
17 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS monitoring data confirm three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes during the August 10–16 window, including a 7.4 event at 110 km depth in western Colombia’s Chocó region on August 10 and a 7.7 shallow offshore quake near Indonesia’s East Nusa Tenggara on August 14. These align with typical weekly clustering along subduction zones and the global average of roughly 15–20 such events annually. With the period nearly complete on August 16, trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for exactly three reflects the low likelihood of an additional qualifying shock before resolution. A new event today—such as an aftershock sequence or unrelated rupture in the Pacific Ring of Fire—remains the primary scenario that could shift the total to four.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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