SpaceX's Starship program has completed just two successful test flights reaching space in 2026—Flight 12 in May debuting Version 3 hardware and Flight 13 in July, which deployed advanced Starlink satellites—anchoring trader consensus on the 5-6 outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent V3 upgrades have improved reliability and enabled payload objectives, yet the deliberate test cadence, driven by iterative development, regulatory approvals from the FAA, and infrastructure expansions at Starbase, limits rapid scaling. Flight 14, targeting late August or September for the first orbital attempt and potential booster or ship catch, represents the next major catalyst; any delays or additional successes could shift sentiment toward higher ranges, while persistent technical or approval hurdles reinforce the current market-implied range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
Сколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
5-6 56%
<5 34%
7-8 8.7%
11-12 2.8%
$492,859 Объем
$492,859 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
34%
5-6
56%
7-8
9%
9–10
3%
11-12
3%
13–14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 56%
<5 34%
7-8 8.7%
11-12 2.8%
$492,859 Объем
$492,859 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
$99,104 Объем
34%
5-6
$113,791 Объем
56%
7-8
$158,458 Объем
9%
9–10
$61,464 Объем
3%
11-12
$8,366 Объем
3%
13–14
$9,146 Объем
<1%
15-16
$30,046 Объем
<1%
>16
$12,483 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed just two successful test flights reaching space in 2026—Flight 12 in May debuting Version 3 hardware and Flight 13 in July, which deployed advanced Starlink satellites—anchoring trader consensus on the 5-6 outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent V3 upgrades have improved reliability and enabled payload objectives, yet the deliberate test cadence, driven by iterative development, regulatory approvals from the FAA, and infrastructure expansions at Starbase, limits rapid scaling. Flight 14, targeting late August or September for the first orbital attempt and potential booster or ship catch, represents the next major catalyst; any delays or additional successes could shift sentiment toward higher ranges, while persistent technical or approval hurdles reinforce the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Объем
$492,859Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed just two successful test flights reaching space in 2026—Flight 12 in May debuting Version 3 hardware and Flight 13 in July, which deployed advanced Starlink satellites—anchoring trader consensus on the 5-6 outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent V3 upgrades have improved reliability and enabled payload objectives, yet the deliberate test cadence, driven by iterative development, regulatory approvals from the FAA, and infrastructure expansions at Starbase, limits rapid scaling. Flight 14, targeting late August or September for the first orbital attempt and potential booster or ship catch, represents the next major catalyst; any delays or additional successes could shift sentiment toward higher ranges, while persistent technical or approval hurdles reinforce the current market-implied range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$492,859Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Starship program has completed just two successful test flights reaching space in 2026—Flight 12 in May debuting Version 3 hardware and Flight 13 in July, which deployed advanced Starlink satellites—anchoring trader consensus on the 5-6 outcome at 56.5% implied probability. Recent V3 upgrades have improved reliability and enabled payload objectives, yet the deliberate test cadence, driven by iterative development, regulatory approvals from the FAA, and infrastructure expansions at Starbase, limits rapid scaling. Flight 14, targeting late August or September for the first orbital attempt and potential booster or ship catch, represents the next major catalyst; any delays or additional successes could shift sentiment toward higher ranges, while persistent technical or approval hurdles reinforce the current market-implied range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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