SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
Сколько запусков SpaceX Starship достигнет космоса в 2026 году?
5-6 55%
<5 35%
7-8 8.2%
11-12 2.9%
$492,859 Объем
$492,859 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
35%
5-6
55%
7-8
8%
9–10
3%
11-12
3%
13–14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 55%
<5 35%
7-8 8.2%
11-12 2.9%
$492,859 Объем
$492,859 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
<5
$99,104 Объем
35%
5-6
$113,791 Объем
55%
7-8
$158,458 Объем
8%
9–10
$61,464 Объем
3%
11-12
$8,366 Объем
3%
13–14
$9,146 Объем
<1%
15-16
$30,046 Объем
<1%
>16
$12,483 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Объем
$492,859Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$492,859Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has completed only two Starship launches reaching space so far in 2026, both successful V3 test flights in May and July that demonstrated Raptor 3 engine performance, hot staging, and Starlink simulator deployment. Traders favor the 5-6 outcome because the program’s historically measured test cadence, ongoing orbital and tower-catch objectives for Flight 14, and regulatory timelines limit rapid scaling, even as hardware production and Florida pad construction advance. Recent progress with V3 reliability and satellite deployment data supports a modest ramp-up in the second half of the year, while persistent development hurdles and the shift toward full orbital profiles keep higher totals at low implied probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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