Iran’s insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity as a non-negotiable position continues to shape trader assessments, with the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum deferring the enrichment question to follow-on talks rather than resolving it. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have centered on stockpile management, verification, and possible regional consortium models, yet Tehran has repeatedly rejected frameworks that would halt or relocate enrichment activities on its soil. IAEA reporting highlights limited inspector access and growing stockpiles of higher-enriched material despite prior strikes on nuclear sites, while August assessments note Iran prioritizing Strait of Hormuz leverage over immediate nuclear concessions. These factors sustain the high implied probability that no agreement ending enrichment by year-end will materialize.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
14% вероятность
$1,590,207 Объем
$1,590,207 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
14% вероятность
$1,590,207 Объем
$1,590,207 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity as a non-negotiable position continues to shape trader assessments, with the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum deferring the enrichment question to follow-on talks rather than resolving it. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have centered on stockpile management, verification, and possible regional consortium models, yet Tehran has repeatedly rejected frameworks that would halt or relocate enrichment activities on its soil. IAEA reporting highlights limited inspector access and growing stockpiles of higher-enriched material despite prior strikes on nuclear sites, while August assessments note Iran prioritizing Strait of Hormuz leverage over immediate nuclear concessions. These factors sustain the high implied probability that no agreement ending enrichment by year-end will materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Объем
$1,590,207Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity as a non-negotiable position continues to shape trader assessments, with the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum deferring the enrichment question to follow-on talks rather than resolving it. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have centered on stockpile management, verification, and possible regional consortium models, yet Tehran has repeatedly rejected frameworks that would halt or relocate enrichment activities on its soil. IAEA reporting highlights limited inspector access and growing stockpiles of higher-enriched material despite prior strikes on nuclear sites, while August assessments note Iran prioritizing Strait of Hormuz leverage over immediate nuclear concessions. These factors sustain the high implied probability that no agreement ending enrichment by year-end will materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,590,207Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s insistence on retaining domestic uranium enrichment capacity as a non-negotiable position continues to shape trader assessments, with the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum deferring the enrichment question to follow-on talks rather than resolving it. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations have centered on stockpile management, verification, and possible regional consortium models, yet Tehran has repeatedly rejected frameworks that would halt or relocate enrichment activities on its soil. IAEA reporting highlights limited inspector access and growing stockpiles of higher-enriched material despite prior strikes on nuclear sites, while August assessments note Iran prioritizing Strait of Hormuz leverage over immediate nuclear concessions. These factors sustain the high implied probability that no agreement ending enrichment by year-end will materialize.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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