Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations have driven repeated short-notice closures and phased reopenings of Israeli airspace, including the Tel Aviv FIR, earlier in the year. As of mid-August 2026, commercial operations at Ben Gurion continue with limited international service amid volatility, though a brief labor disruption occurred on August 20 unrelated to security. EASA advisories and US Embassy alerts note elevated risks from proxy actions by groups such as the Houthis, while diplomatic channels and defensive postures have supported partial continuity. Trader assessments reflect these patterns, weighing potential escalations near the Strait of Hormuz or further exchanges against the current operational status through late August.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$27,348,796 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
2%
30 сентября
9%
$27,348,796 Объем
31 августа
$1,316,148 Объем
2%
30 сентября
$767 Объем
9%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations have driven repeated short-notice closures and phased reopenings of Israeli airspace, including the Tel Aviv FIR, earlier in the year. As of mid-August 2026, commercial operations at Ben Gurion continue with limited international service amid volatility, though a brief labor disruption occurred on August 20 unrelated to security. EASA advisories and US Embassy alerts note elevated risks from proxy actions by groups such as the Houthis, while diplomatic channels and defensive postures have supported partial continuity. Trader assessments reflect these patterns, weighing potential escalations near the Strait of Hormuz or further exchanges against the current operational status through late August.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Объем
$27,348,796Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations have driven repeated short-notice closures and phased reopenings of Israeli airspace, including the Tel Aviv FIR, earlier in the year. As of mid-August 2026, commercial operations at Ben Gurion continue with limited international service amid volatility, though a brief labor disruption occurred on August 20 unrelated to security. EASA advisories and US Embassy alerts note elevated risks from proxy actions by groups such as the Houthis, while diplomatic channels and defensive postures have supported partial continuity. Trader assessments reflect these patterns, weighing potential escalations near the Strait of Hormuz or further exchanges against the current operational status through late August.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$27,348,796Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions stemming from the 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone retaliations have driven repeated short-notice closures and phased reopenings of Israeli airspace, including the Tel Aviv FIR, earlier in the year. As of mid-August 2026, commercial operations at Ben Gurion continue with limited international service amid volatility, though a brief labor disruption occurred on August 20 unrelated to security. EASA advisories and US Embassy alerts note elevated risks from proxy actions by groups such as the Houthis, while diplomatic channels and defensive postures have supported partial continuity. Trader assessments reflect these patterns, weighing potential escalations near the Strait of Hormuz or further exchanges against the current operational status through late August.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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