**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДжастин Агиар осужден за сексуальное насилие до 2027 года?
Джастин Агиар осужден за сексуальное насилие до 2027 года?
Да
31% вероятность
$52,562 Объем
$52,562 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
31% вероятность
$52,562 Объем
$52,562 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Объем
$52,562Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$52,562Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**Traders heavily favor "No" at 82.9% implied probability because the current charge—stemming from an August 2024 allegation that led to Justin Aguiar’s November 2025 arrest—remains in early procedural stages with no trial date set before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, faces one count of sexual assault; two prior charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and Canadian sexual assault conviction rates remain low amid court backlogs. Recent coverage, including additional unverified allegations reported in 2026, has not produced confirmed updates on plea negotiations or scheduling that would accelerate a guilty verdict. Market consensus reflects the realistic timeline for Ontario Court proceedings, where dismissals, delays, or non-guilt resolutions are common within the narrow window remaining.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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