Łukasz Gibała leads the 2026 Kraków mayoral race at 70.5% implied probability following the May 2026 recall referendum that removed incumbent Aleksander Miszalski with over 97% support among participants. Gibała, running as an independent under the Kraków dla Mieszkańców committee, benefits from his strong 2024 showing—where he fell short by roughly 5,400 votes in the runoff—and consistent first-round polling strength ahead of the September 27 vote. Monika Piątkowska trails at 22.5% as another independent contender, while lower-probability candidates reflect fragmented fields without comparable name recognition or organizational backing. Trader positioning tracks these local dynamics, including Gibała’s recent formal announcement and the referendum’s momentum against the prior Civic Coalition administration, rather than national party swings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЛукаш Гибала 71%
Моника Пентковска 23%
Ян Хоффман 4.4%
Александра Овца 4.1%
$17,289 Объем
$17,289 Объем
Лукаш Гибала
71%
Моника Пентковска
23%
Ян Хоффман
4%
Александра Овца
4%
Лукаш Вантух
3%
Рафаł Комаревич
3%
Гражина Зофия Свят
3%
Дарья Госек-Попиолек
2%
Марианна Шрайбер
2%
Мариан Банащ
1%
Рафаł Соник
1%
Павел Шлиз
1%
Марта Ратушиньска
1%
Михал Древницкий
<1%
Бартош Боченчак
<1%
Славомир Петржик
<1%
Михал Климек
<1%
Лукаш Гибала 71%
Моника Пентковска 23%
Ян Хоффман 4.4%
Александра Овца 4.1%
$17,289 Объем
$17,289 Объем
Лукаш Гибала
71%
Моника Пентковска
23%
Ян Хоффман
4%
Александра Овца
4%
Лукаш Вантух
3%
Рафаł Комаревич
3%
Гражина Зофия Свят
3%
Дарья Госек-Попиолек
2%
Марианна Шрайбер
2%
Мариан Банащ
1%
Рафаł Соник
1%
Павел Шлиз
1%
Марта Ратушиньска
1%
Михал Древницкий
<1%
Бартош Боченчак
<1%
Славомир Петржик
<1%
Михал Климек
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Łukasz Gibała leads the 2026 Kraków mayoral race at 70.5% implied probability following the May 2026 recall referendum that removed incumbent Aleksander Miszalski with over 97% support among participants. Gibała, running as an independent under the Kraków dla Mieszkańców committee, benefits from his strong 2024 showing—where he fell short by roughly 5,400 votes in the runoff—and consistent first-round polling strength ahead of the September 27 vote. Monika Piątkowska trails at 22.5% as another independent contender, while lower-probability candidates reflect fragmented fields without comparable name recognition or organizational backing. Trader positioning tracks these local dynamics, including Gibała’s recent formal announcement and the referendum’s momentum against the prior Civic Coalition administration, rather than national party swings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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