Current ensemble forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration show nighttime minimum temperatures in Chongqing clustering around 25–27°C for August 22, reflecting typical late-summer subtropical conditions with high humidity limiting radiative cooling and light winds reducing mixing. These factors create tight clustering of implied probabilities near 26°C (31.5%), 25°C (28.5%), and 27°C (28.0%), as modest variations in cloud cover, urban heat retention, or model resolution can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 25°C provide context, but ongoing model updates through the next 24 hours introduce genuine forecast uncertainty that traders weigh against official verification criteria.