**Recent model guidance and the post-heatwave recovery in western Europe are anchoring trader expectations for Paris’s overnight low on August 8 around 13–15 °C.** After an earlier heatwave and scattered thunderstorms, a brief cooldown brought morning lows near 17 °C on August 6–7; warmer, more stable air is now returning under building high pressure, favoring clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate radiative cooling overnight. Typical August climatology for Paris shows average overnight lows near 15 °C, with values rarely falling below 13 °C or exceeding 18 °C in the first half of the month. Current ensemble forecasts from sources such as Météo-France and ECMWF place the most likely minimum in the 14–16 °C range, consistent with the market’s heaviest volume on 14 °C (48.5 %) followed by 13 °C (23 %) and 15 °C (20.5 %). No strong cold-air advection or unusually clear, calm conditions are projected that would push temperatures significantly lower, while the warming trend keeps the probability of 16 °C or higher modest. Traders are therefore pricing the outcome as a narrow band around the seasonal norm, with limited scope for outlier cooling or warming before the night of August 7–8.