Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026, and the Assembly of Experts' election of his son Mojtaba as successor on March 9, trader focus has centered on the new leader's prolonged absence from public view. Written statements attributed to Mojtaba have continued through state media, yet no verified appearances, audio, or visual confirmation have occurred since his appointment, prompting reports of possible incapacitation or treatment in Qom. Ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel, combined with regional instability, has fueled assessments of whether security or medical considerations could prompt a departure from Iran before key resolution dates. Historical patterns of Iranian leadership transitions and recent diplomatic signals from Tehran remain central to evaluating any shift in positioning.