**The PA-15 U.S. House race remains anchored by the district’s consistent Republican lean and incumbent Glenn Thompson’s established position against Democrat Ray Bilger.** Thompson, seeking a tenth term in the north-central Pennsylvania district that includes areas like State College, advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primary, as did Bilger. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+19 partisan voting index and Donald Trump’s 21.5-point 2024 margin there. Trader probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 30–40 points, reflecting the structural advantage, Thompson’s fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries. A shift in national political conditions, unexpected local issues, or significant candidate events before November 3 could adjust the final margin, though the current consensus points to a comfortable Republican hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPA-15 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
PA-15 Маржа победы на выборах в Палату представителей
Republican 35-40% 32%
Republican 30-35% 30%
Republican 25-30% 18%
Republican 40-45% 15.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican 50%+
1%
Republican 45-50%
5%
Republican 40-45%
15%
Republican 35-40%
32%
Republican 30-35%
30%
Republican 25-30%
18%
Republican 20-25%
3%
Republican 10-20%
<1%
Republican 0-10%
<1%
Democrat Wins
<1%
Republican 35-40% 32%
Republican 30-35% 30%
Republican 25-30% 18%
Republican 40-45% 15.0%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Republican 50%+
$337 Объем
1%
Republican 45-50%
$386 Объем
5%
Republican 40-45%
$597 Объем
15%
Republican 35-40%
$1,627 Объем
32%
Republican 30-35%
$1,391 Объем
30%
Republican 25-30%
$1,709 Объем
18%
Republican 20-25%
$590 Объем
3%
Republican 10-20%
$295 Объем
<1%
Republican 0-10%
$526 Объем
<1%
Democrat Wins
$228 Объем
<1%
The 2026 PA-15 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-15 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The PA-15 U.S. House race remains anchored by the district’s consistent Republican lean and incumbent Glenn Thompson’s established position against Democrat Ray Bilger.**
Thompson, seeking a tenth term in the north-central Pennsylvania district that includes areas like State College, advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primary, as did Bilger. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+19 partisan voting index and Donald Trump’s 21.5-point 2024 margin there. Trader probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 30–40 points, reflecting the structural advantage, Thompson’s fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries.
A shift in national political conditions, unexpected local issues, or significant candidate events before November 3 could adjust the final margin, though the current consensus points to a comfortable Republican hold.
The 2026 PA-15 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-15 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-15 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Объем
$7,684Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 PA-15 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-15 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The PA-15 U.S. House race remains anchored by the district’s consistent Republican lean and incumbent Glenn Thompson’s established position against Democrat Ray Bilger.**
Thompson, seeking a tenth term in the north-central Pennsylvania district that includes areas like State College, advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primary, as did Bilger. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+19 partisan voting index and Donald Trump’s 21.5-point 2024 margin there. Trader probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 30–40 points, reflecting the structural advantage, Thompson’s fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries.
A shift in national political conditions, unexpected local issues, or significant candidate events before November 3 could adjust the final margin, though the current consensus points to a comfortable Republican hold.
The 2026 PA-15 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-15 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-15 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$7,684Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 11, 2026, 2:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**The PA-15 U.S. House race remains anchored by the district’s consistent Republican lean and incumbent Glenn Thompson’s established position against Democrat Ray Bilger.** Thompson, seeking a tenth term in the north-central Pennsylvania district that includes areas like State College, advanced unopposed in the May 2026 primary, as did Bilger. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its R+19 partisan voting index and Donald Trump’s 21.5-point 2024 margin there. Trader probabilities cluster on Republican victory margins of 30–40 points, reflecting the structural advantage, Thompson’s fundraising edge, and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries. A shift in national political conditions, unexpected local issues, or significant candidate events before November 3 could adjust the final margin, though the current consensus points to a comfortable Republican hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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