The low probability of Sam Altman serving jail time by mid-2026 reflects the purely civil nature of the ongoing Musk v. Altman trial in federal court, which centers on OpenAI’s transition from nonprofit to for-profit status and alleged breaches of the original founding charter. Closing arguments concluded last week with Musk’s team attacking Altman’s credibility over internal decisions and disclosures, yet the case seeks damages and board removal rather than criminal penalties. No federal or state investigations have produced charges, and separate civil matters—including a withdrawn family lawsuit—have not escalated to criminal proceedings. Traders view the aggregated market odds as reflecting the absence of verifiable criminal exposure, with any surprise resolution more likely to involve fines or leadership changes than incarceration.